How does fertiliser shortage affect food supply?

FAO warns fertiliser disruption could cut harvests

Food systems risk a multi-year squeeze after fertiliser supplies are disrupted, according to a warning from the UN’s FAO. The concern centers on shortages tied to disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz shipping corridor.

What happens next

Fertiliser is a key input for growing crops. If fertiliser availability falls, farmers typically have fewer nutrients to apply, which can reduce yields. In turn, that can lower overall harvest volumes.

FAO’s warning describes the likely downstream outcome as:

• Lower harvests in the near term
• Reduced food supply over the next two years

Why the shipping corridor matters

The Strait of Hormuz is a major chokepoint for global energy and shipping flows. When shipping through or near that corridor is disrupted, it can affect import routes and the movement of industrial goods—including fertilisers.

That mechanism matters because fertiliser supply chains are time-sensitive: planting schedules come first, and there is limited flexibility once the growing season starts. Even when products are eventually rerouted, delays can still mean crops get less—or no—fertiliser during critical windows.

What this means for consumers and markets

For consumers, the key risk isn’t stated as an immediate recall or a specific contamination event. Instead, it’s a supply-and-demand issue that can pressure prices and availability as harvest shortfalls feed into the broader food market.

The available information doesn’t quantify the size of harvest losses or forecast prices for specific countries, but it does link fertiliser scarcity to crop performance and then to food supply over the following two years.