How does fertilizer shortage affect food supply?

What the FAO warning says

The FAO has warned that fertiliser shortages tied to disruption in the Strait of Hormuz shipping corridor will likely reduce harvests and worsen food supply conditions over the next two years.

The causal chain

The mechanism is straightforward: when shipping disruptions constrain movement of fertiliser, farmers have less access to inputs needed to maintain crop yields. Lower fertiliser availability then translates into reduced harvest volumes, which can tighten food availability and put upward pressure on prices.

Why this matters

This kind of upstream supply shock is important because it can propagate beyond the immediate shipping disruption. Even if transport routes normalize later, the warning points to a multi-year impact window—meaning that shortages can be reflected in planting seasons and crop performance over time.

For consumers, the most visible impacts are often felt through retail prices and availability. For supply chain planners, the concern is that uncertainty around fertiliser availability can complicate production forecasts and procurement decisions for grains and other key crops.

• Disruption in a major shipping corridor affects fertiliser availability.
• Reduced fertiliser can lower harvest yields.
• The expected effect spans the next two years.

No finer details were provided in the excerpt about which fertiliser types, which regions would be most affected, or how quickly the market might rebalance.