Can permafrost thaw release greenhouse gases faster?
Thawing permafrost becomes far more permeable
Experiments highlighted in the provided stories show that thawing permafrost can become dramatically more permeable than it is when frozen—an effect that would allow greenhouse gases trapped in Arctic soils to move more easily to the atmosphere.
In the University of Leeds study described, researchers quantified gas fraction and gas permeability as permafrost transitions from frozen to thawed conditions. The key finding is that thawing made permafrost between 25 and 100 times more permeable. That shift matters because permeability controls how readily gas can travel through soil pores and channels.
Why permeability is a big deal
Permafrost stores large amounts of organic carbon and can trap gases formed as the ground thaws. If the thawed ground becomes more permeable, multiple processes could accelerate:
- Gas can escape more quickly from the soil interior
- Pathways for methane and other greenhouse gases to reach the surface improve
- Released gases could increase near-term warming, feeding back into thaw
Because permeability changes can happen at the same time as warmer temperatures and increased microbial activity, the mechanism supports the idea that warming doesn’t just gradually melt ice—it can also change the physical “plumbing” that governs emissions.
What’s new compared with older assumptions
Earlier framing often emphasized the role of temperature and biological activity in driving emissions. This work instead adds a quantified physical mechanism—how thaw changes transport properties inside permafrost.
That refinement is useful for climate models, which need realistic representations of how quickly gases can move once thaw begins.
What’s still missing
The stories include the permeability magnitude and an experimental quantification of the mechanism, but do not spell out the exact greenhouse gas species measured, the field scalability of the results, or how local soil differences affect the range. Still, the message is straightforward: as permafrost thaws, it can become a much easier route for greenhouse gases to escape.