Is global warming accelerating?

The recent trend in planetary heating

Multiple recent analyses show that the rate of global warming has increased over the past decade compared with longer‑term averages. Researchers who compared temperature records over several datasets conclude that since about 2015 the planet has warmed at roughly 0.35°C per decade — roughly double the warming rate seen from 1970 to 2015.

Those studies account for short‑term climate drivers such as El Niño and volcanic cooling; even after excluding those influences, the underlying trend indicates a faster accumulation of heat in Earth’s climate system. The acceleration reflects continued greenhouse‑gas emissions, the inertia of the climate system, and interactions among atmospheric, oceanic and cryospheric processes.

Key implications

• Faster warming raises the probability that international temperature thresholds, such as the 1.5°C target, will be reached earlier than previously projected.
• Many climate impacts — heat extremes, glacier loss, sea‑level rise and ecosystem stress — respond nonlinearly to temperature, so a steeper rate of warming increases near‑term risks.
• Adaptation and mitigation planning will need to assume higher near‑term warming rates to avoid underpreparing infrastructure and communities.

Uncertainties remain about year‑to‑year variability and how feedbacks (for example, changes in clouds, ice melt, or natural carbon sinks) will evolve. But the weight of current observational analyses points to a clear and practical conclusion: recent warming is not merely continuing but has accelerated, increasing urgency for rapid emissions reductions and strengthened resilience measures.