What does India’s ‘Indian Niño’ do to heat?

“Indian Niño” links to record heat in 2023–2024

A new study finds that an event dubbed “Indian Niño” helped drive record heat during 2023 and 2024. The researchers report that during those years, Earth’s average global surface temperature spiked to nearly 0.3°C above what was already expected from climate change.

What the study says happened

The central finding is attribution: the Indian Niño contributed to global warmth beyond the baseline warming expected from long-term greenhouse-gas forcing. In other words, the background trend continued, but a recurring climate pattern added an extra boost to temperatures.

The results were significant enough that each year was declared the hottest in the climate record at the time the designation was made. That combination—an ongoing long-term rise plus an additional climate-driver influence—helps explain why 2023 and 2024 stand out.

Why it matters

Understanding what drives year-to-year temperature spikes is crucial for interpreting climate change signals and for improving seasonal-to-interannual forecasting. Events like Indian Niño can intensify heat quickly, complicating public and policy expectations about whether a given year reflects the underlying trend or a short-term anomaly.

What’s not provided

The summary does not include mechanisms—such as ocean-atmosphere changes or regional circulation details—or the study’s specific methods for separating Indian Niño’s effect from other drivers like El Niño/La Niña variability or volcanic activity. It also doesn’t describe how strongly the event affects different regions beyond the global temperature lift.