What drove methane’s rise in 2019–2024?

Blended satellite data point to causes of methane growth

A new analysis using blended satellite datasets has been used to determine what contributed to methane’s rise between 2019 and 2024. Methane is a major climate-forcing gas—substantially more effective than carbon dioxide at trapping heat over shorter time horizons—so understanding why global concentrations increased during that period matters for climate policy and for the Global Methane Pledge.

The reported approach is important because it blends satellite observations to improve detection of where methane is coming from and how signals change over time. Instead of relying on a single observing system, combining datasets can reduce the risk that a particular instrument’s biases or coverage gaps distort the inferred global trend.

Why the “drivers” question is hard

Methane emissions are uneven across the planet and can shift quickly due to:

• changes in fossil fuel extraction and processing,
• waste and wastewater management,
• agriculture (including livestock and rice cultivation),
• and natural sources such as wetlands.

If methane concentrations rise globally, the increase could reflect a mix of more emissions from one sector, fewer reductions from others, or changes in atmospheric transport.

What this report adds

The headline is that the analysis attributes methane’s 2019–2024 increase to identifiable drivers using satellite evidence. In other words, it aims to move from “methane went up” to “these processes likely pushed it higher,” which is crucial for deciding which mitigation levers can be scaled.

As countries negotiate and implement methane reduction commitments, the key policy value is that satellite-based driver attribution helps target interventions more precisely—so reductions aren’t wasted on measures that don’t address the dominant sources behind the recent rise.