Will El Niño return in 2026?

Scientists warn El Niño could form later in 2026 and raise temperatures

Climate researchers are tracking early signs that the El Niño phase of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) may develop later this year. El Niño is a natural ocean–atmosphere cycle in the tropical Pacific that shifts sea-surface temperatures and global weather patterns. When a pronounced El Niño forms on top of the long-term human-driven warming trend, the compound effect can push global average temperatures higher than in neutral years.

Meteorologists say the developing conditions increase the chance that 2026 could be measurably warmer than recent years. That matters because El Niño does more than nudge the thermometer: it redistributes heat and moisture in ways that intensify extreme weather. Typical impacts include:

• Increased global average temperatures, with a greater likelihood of new monthly or annual records.
• Enhanced heatwaves in many regions and reduced rainfall in others, contributing to drought and water stress.
• Stronger tropical cyclone activity in some ocean basins and altered storm tracks elsewhere.

The immediate risks are to food and water security, wildfire potential, and the stress placed on energy and health systems during hotter, drier spells. For policymakers and utilities, an El Niño year often means earlier planning for heat-health responses, adjustments to water allocations, and heightened monitoring of agriculture and wildfire risk.

Uncertainties remain about the strength and timing of any El Niño event; forecasters will refine predictions as the tropical Pacific evolves over coming months. But because El Niño episodes have an outsized influence on short-term climate extremes, even a moderate event emerging in 2026 would amplify the impacts of the underlying global warming trend and is being treated as a near‑term climate risk by scientists and planners.