Why are smartphone shipments expected to fall in 2026?

Question

Hans Steiner · Accepted Answer

The supply shock behind the forecast

Analysts are projecting a sharp decline in global smartphone shipments in 2026 because memory — especially RAM — has become scarce and expensive. Demand for high‑capacity memory from data centers and AI infrastructure has surged, squeezing supply available for consumer devices. Industry forecasts from IDC and others now expect a double‑digit drop in shipments as manufacturers struggle to secure affordable memory components.

Manufacturers are responding by raising device prices, tightening feature sets on budget models, or delaying releases. Some premium phones are still shipping, but entry‑level and midrange devices — which make up a large volume of global shipments — are particularly exposed when component costs spike.

Practical consequences for consumers and the industry

Higher prices: Device makers are passing increased component costs to buyers, which reduces demand and shortens upgrade cycles.
Product mix shifts: Companies may prioritize higher‑margin flagship models and cut back on low‑end SKUs that rely on affordable RAM.
Market contraction: Analysts warn the annual shipment decline could be the largest in recent history, shrinking total unit volume while potentially lifting average selling prices.

If memory supply eases, the market could stabilize, but projections now assume the shortage persists through 2026. That means buyers may see fewer cheap phones, slower refresh cycles, and manufacturers shifting strategies to protect margins during a period of constrained parts availability.